Posts with tag "predictions"

Windows 7 in 2009 or how a nobody predicted it first

Category: Technology
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Posted 1471 days ago

It doesn’t happen very often that a relatively unknown blogger can predict something will happen and get any notice about their prediction. That sort of thing is reserved for the big names like Mary Jo Foley, Ed Bott and other ‘pro’ tech writers. However I’ve been pretty lucky when I stick my neck out an prognosticate like the big boys in the business and today’s announcement about Windows 7 going gold “in time for the holiday season” was one of those times.

From the time when word first started leaking out about Windows 7 I have been watching its progression as well as using both the first beta and now the release candidate. Even as far back as April of 2008 I wrote how I believed we would see a release of Windows 7 in time for Christmas of 2009

…. and Microsoft has already been making noises that the next consumer version of Windows will be very much a modular release we could very well see a new Windows OS near the end of 2009. After all even on a financial scale Microsoft cannot afford to miss another high dollar period as they did when Vista missed it’s Christmas shipping date.

I don’t proclaim to know or understand the in’s and out’s of Microsoft and how it does business but in this case I think I’ll be siding with Ed and look for Windows 7 to be under more than a few Christmas trees come 2009.

Which I followed up with an expanded post about Microsoft and Windows 7 on April 18, 2008

The one other major factor that has to be taken into consideration when thinking of the timeline is the fact that Microsoft cannot afford to miss another prime selling season as they did with Vista when it missed the Christmas season and pissed off a lot of their OEM customers that where depending on it. So it is a matter of corporate credibility that they make the target and better yet if they can do it before they are expected to.

In the end after all is said and one I believe that we will see a fully modular version of Windows available by the end of 2009 in time for the Christmas buying season. Am I 100 percent sure on this – not a fat chance; but it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if it does happen that way

In light of today’s news at Microsoft’s TechNet conference about Windows 7 it is gratifying, if only to me, that I nailed this one but good. If you are interested in some of what the big names had to say on the matter here’s a list of links to some of the more popular tech bloggers and their posts on the news.

Microsoft finally acknowledges Windows 7 will ship in 2009 – Mary Jo Foley
Windows 7 to be ready for holiday shopping season – Ed Bott
Windows 7 on Track to Hit This Holiday Season – Brandon LeBlanc
It’s Official: Windows 7 For the Holidays – Harry McCracken
Windows 7 Ship Date and Office 2010 Tech Preview – Steve Clayton
It’s official: Windows 7 for the holidays, probably August RTM – Brier Dudley

The one prediction I really hope comes true

Category: Odds & Ends
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Posted 1963 days ago

Wait until Ballmer feels me bite his ass Yup .. it’s that time of the year where everyone figures that their crystal ball is better than the next persons and inundate us with the usual dribble of things that all have a 50-50 chance of coming true or proving how little we really know about the tech industry.

One of the most long standing of tech prognosticators has to be Robert Cringely who graces us with his wisdom of what is yet to happen in the upcoming year. This year is no different as he posted his list of successes and failures for the last year along with what he thinks will happen in 2008.

Now most of what he had to say really didn’t get me all that excited until I came down to his number eight prognostication:

8) Not only will Bill Gates be retiring from Microsoft in 2008, CEO Steve Ballmer will, too. No word yet on his successor.

All I can say for this one is I sure frikken hope that of all of his crystal balling that this one actually comes true. I don’t care if he flunks out on every other one as long as this vision of Ballmer comes true – and it couldn’t happen soon enough.

Ballmer has become a blight on Microsoft and the sooner he takes a long walk off of a short pier all the better for the company. Now while Robert didn’t want to go out on a limb and complication the law of averages for this prediction by suggestion who would replace the sweating doofus I have two possibilities that could really make things interesting.

Steve Clayton

Hugh MacLeod

Chances of happening – slim to none but damn it would sure make for an interesting company in the aftermath.

One sure fire prediction for 2007

Category: Technology
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Posted 2336 days ago

If there is one thing you can take to the bank in the year of 2007 is that Google will still be at the top of the mountain; however probably not for the most obvious reasons that you might think.

Sure, you are probably thinking it will be because of their search but algorithms can change and improve over night. While each search company may have its own methodology for getting you your results they all in their own way provide enough appropriate links to keep you happy.

Mathematics will not keep Google on top. They stay on top; and most likely will for years to come regardless of who tries to dethrone them because one one very simple thing – they took control of the human vernacular. The moment Google became a verb they won the battle and no amount of math will turn the tide.

Microsoft Live.com can try all they want, Ask.com can try as many interfaces as they like and any number of search wannabe’s can scramble for the scraps but none of them have the verb. Google would have to do a really big screw up of a major scale to lose its throne but even then unless the competition can steal the verb Google will still win.

If there will ever be anyone that will dethrone the king of search it will be a dark horse, a college student in some dark coffee stained dorm room who discovers two things – a slightly better algorithm but more importantly he or she will discover a new verb that can take the human vernacular away from Google.