It’s been interesting watching all this hoopla around Facebook and its insane valuation – which is based on nothing more than all the data we blindly give them everyday.
Facebook is undoubtedly the current golden boy of social media, or rather social marketing, and Zuckerberg deserves all the kudos he is getting for convincing us all that we “need” Facebook in our lives, managing our social presence on the Web.
The question is – just how long can Facebook maintain this forward growth?
Of course everyone is talking up the recent investment from Goldman Sachs, to the tune of $1.5B, and how this is obviously leading to an IPO for Facebook; not to mention the probable internal pressure from employees looking to become the newest web millionaires. Douglas Rushkoff in a post at CNN had some interesting things to say about this investment and how it is an indicator that Facebook is turning from a rising star to a fading one.
Now, it’s Facebook’s turn. This week’s news that Goldman Sachs has chosen to invest in Facebook while entreating others to do the same should inspire about as much confidence as their investment in mortgage securities did in 2008. For those who weren’t watching, that’s when Goldman got rich betting against the investments it was selling.
This time, Goldman is putting up some millions of its own — as if this skin in the game means they couldn’t be up to their old tricks. But the commissions and underwriting fees Goldman is earning for selling that other $1.5 billion of private Facebook shares could be enough to offset the cost of their own investment. And bets against Facebook could be leveraged any number of times.
Either way Goldman Sachs comes away the ultimate winner.
Well I’m a lot less eloquent than Rushkoff so I’ll say this this nice and simply.
At some point in 2011 we will begin to see Facebook begin to flatline. Growth will stagnate and if a newer cooler social media hub comes along it could actually begin to decline; but it won’t be going anywhere anytime soon – it is too big for that.
2011 will be the peak year of Facebook.
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